Conflict in the Persian Gulf has spurred modest oil price volatility in recent weeks, but prices didn’t spike to high levels seen during some past conflicts. That’s partly because rising U.S. oil production has shaken up the global oil market since 2010.

Crude oil prices still react to geopolitical events and other unplanned supply disruptions. However, global oil supplies exceeded demand by 0.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2019, creating an oil glut that is helping to hold down prices. The International Energy Agency predicts that global demand for oil will rise at a slower pace than previously expected during the second half 2019, while noting deteriorating trade and manufacturing activity. Here’s an update on current events that are sparking oil price movements as well as some potential effects on the economy.